1 · The population
Half the hurricanes, four-fifths of the energy
What separates a major from a hurricane that stayed minor
Mann–Whitney AUC per descriptor: 0.5 = no information; >0.5 = majors higher; <0.5 = majors lower. Colored by causal standing.
2 · Born lower, driven farther
The genuine precursors
3 · The gate
No rapid intensification, (almost) no major
4 · The environment null
Same ceiling, different conversion
When the majors happen
Month of lifetime-maximum intensity: majors vs hurricanes that stayed minor, 1979–2025.
5 · Timing
Concentrated in peak season, and not arriving earlier
6 · Change within the majors
The runway is shortening
7 · What's special
The synthesis
Method
References
- Maue, R. N. (2026). Global Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation — the aggregate record; §8 for the exposure/track findings this paper's synthesis rests on.
- The Storm Ledger — the per-storm characteristics, families, and four-voice audit underlying every comparison here; full CSV there.
- Carrasco, C. A., Landsea, C. W. & Lin, Y.-L. (2014). The influence of tropical cyclone size on its intensification. Wea. Forecasting 29, 582–590.
- Kaplan, J. & DeMaria, M. (2003). Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting 18, 1093–1108. (the RI definition)
- Emanuel, K. (2000). A statistical analysis of tropical cyclone intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 1139–1152. (the uniform-fate view this paper's runway result refines)
- Wang, S., et al. (2023). Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate. Nature 623, 83–89. (the advance tested — and not found — in §5)
- Gilford, D. M. (2021). pyPI v1.3. GMD 14, 2351–2369. (the PI record of §4)